Trump's firewall and Haley's potential as a disruptor

The waning days of the invisible primary have many confronting shrinking uncertainty, the kind that operates without the benefit of vote data

Within a 24 hour span last week there was a whiplash-inducing pair of articles published looking at the race for the Republican presidential nomination beyond Iowa. In one, Tom LoBianco discussed the whispered worries from some in and around the Trump orbit that a better-than-expected second in Iowa and outright win in New Hampshire could catapult former UN ambassador Nikki Haley into a more competitive and potentially threatening position in the race.¹ The other on Friday from Jake Lahut at The Daily Beast, basically threw water on that, raising the former president’s organizational advantages in the race.

FHQ’s reaction in each case was, “Yeah, but… .” Both pieces, as it turns out, are indicative of the final days of the invisible primary, where voting is on the horizon and the data from it, stacked state-by-state and contest-to-contest across the primary calendar and over time, gives onlookers, both casual and junkies alike, a better and more certain lay of the land in any presidential nomination race. The possibilities are closer to infinity than they will be once votes start coming in. And the reporting sometimes reflects that. At this point, it can still be both things. And honestly, neither LoBianco nor Lahut are wrong here.

But there is room for a more nuanced exploration of Trumps’ firewall and Haley’s potential to grow into a disruptor.