The FHQ+ Presidential National Popular Vote Projection -- FINAL
Candidate popular votes shares based on a graduated weighted average of national polls
FHQ+ will be rolling out a number of things on Election Day today. First up is a look at how the national polls have progressed in the race for the White House between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump since early August. 2024 has been the first cycle that we have given the national polls the graduated weighted average treatment. In the past we had only averaged surveys on the presidential race at the state level. But this time around, we opted to incorporate the national polls into how we dealt with under-polled states across the country.
And that gave us a lens through which to view the national race in isolation as well.
For those new to FHQ, the graduated weighted average only adjusts polling data for when a survey is released. The older a poll is, the more discounted it becomes in the model. Additionally, the weighting not terribly aggressive. Of course, that is one of the trade-offs in all of this. A weighting scheme that is on the less aggressive side will tend to be less responsive to quick changes in the data, but it will also often smooth out the bumps when those changes end up being temporary in nature. Another way to look at the FHQ methodology is as a lagging indicator. When things change in the weighted average, then they have typically changed in a more permanent and lasting way.
On to the data…