The FHQ+ Electoral College Map (9/25/24)

A shift in Florida, plus surveys from Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, Pennsylvania & Texas

41 days until election day.

6 days until the vice presidential debate in New York

Regular readers might note that there may be changes in the projection here at FHQ, but they tend to be of the subtle variety rather than eye-popping in nature. Since the post-Labor Day launch, only South Carolina has changed categories, shifting from the low end of the group of Strong Trump states to the high side of the Lean Trump states. Of course, at more than nine points into the Trump side of the order, the Palmetto state is not in any immediate danger of hopping the partisan line and turning blue.

But the action today is on the opposite end of that Lean Trump cluster of states. Let’s take a closer look…