The FHQ+ Electoral College Map (10/8/24)
An outlier in Florida? Polls out of Massachusetts, Texas and other battlegrounds plus another round of national surveys
4 weeks until election day.
With just 28 days until the voting phase of the 2024 election concludes, a fresh round of polling shook things up a little around FHQ today. Sure, there was the usual list of swing state surveys from Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but NYT/Siena pushed beyond the usual suspects, going a little deeper into the order of states. The collaborative fielded polls in Florida and Texas (and a national poll on top of that), two states that have been a little more comfortably in former President Donald Trump’s column this cycle. Of course, there is the added benefit of a couple of fringe competitive Senate races to lure polling firms into the two states as well.
That is not a bad thing. While there has been and will continue to be an emphasis on the seven states that will decide the presidential election next month, polling outside of that group helps bolster our understanding not only of how the states are aligning relative to one another in 2024, but also how things may have shifted since the last cycle.
And if Florida has shifted as much as this latest survey suggests, then that has some implications for how we think about the electoral college too. There is a lot to get to, so let’s dig in…
Looking for recent daily updates to the FHQ projection? Here’s how things looked yesterday…
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Where things stood at FHQ on October 8 (or close to it) in...