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The FHQ+ Electoral College Map (10/11/24)
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The FHQ+ Electoral College Map (10/11/24)

Trump sees a good day in the state-level polls while Harris continues to ride a small advantage in the average of the national surveys

Josh Putnam's avatar
Josh Putnam
Oct 12, 2024
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The FHQ+ Electoral College Map (10/11/24)
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25 days until election day.

Yesterday’s update led with the question of whether the tide had turned in the presidential race. FHQ’s general answer to that was that fluctuations occur across any race for the White House, but that while the margins had slightly tightened in a couple of states — Michigan and Wisconsin — the change had been minimal overall, not impacting the underlying, albeit small, advantage Harris continues to hold in the electoral college. And even then, the fluctuations are occurring in a much smaller window in 2024 than in some past cycles.

Enter today’s batch of polls.

It was a particularly good round for Trump. However, it did not offer blanket good news for the former president (…even with the release of a series of internal Trump campaign polls of the seven battlegrounds). As always, there is some nuance to the polling releases of the day. Let’s have a look….

Looking for recent daily updates to the FHQ projection? Here’s how things looked yesterday…

October 10

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Where things stood at FHQ on October 11 (or close to it) in...

2020
2016

2012
2008

As election day approaches, keep up with daily updates and analysis of the electoral college projection for just $5 for the first month. FHQ Plus is a reader-supported publication. Subscribe below.

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