Revisiting effective winnowing

Can a candidate be out before they are officially out?

Back in August, in the lead-up to the first Republican presidential primary debate, FHQ discussed effective winnowing in response to a comment that former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had made. The premise is simple enough: A candidate may still be in any given nomination race, but such a candidate may be effectively out of it. In Christie's construction, the notion was that if a candidate does not make the debate stage, then that candidate should be out. 

FHQ took it a step further.